After a divisional weekend that saw the faithful taking 3 units from The Man, we head to Championship Sunday, where the two conference favorites try and make the grand daddy of football in the house that Jerry Jones built. These lines seem to be right on the money so it will be a tough road to navigate for those who like to put their money where their mouth is. But now is not the time to hesitate, so without any further ado, here are the plays.
Seahawks 7.5 favorites against the Packers, the over under 46. Both numbers seem right on the money, as the Seahawks dispatched the boys from Green Bay 36-16 in prime time on September 4th. Not a whole lot has changed since then, both teams struggled early in the season but found their stride down the stretch with impressive victories against quality opponents. As was the case last week, the health of Rogers will be key, as his mobility is the one quality that sets him apart from the mortals and makes him elite. Nothing that happened last weekend suggested he will be able to regain that mobility and Russell Wilson was firing on all cylinders, especially on third down. If not for a dubious call against Dez Bryant, the Packers might not even be playing in this game and the Seahawks defense looks as impressive as it ever has, making all the big plays at the right time. These teams have played each other only 5 times in the last 6 years, so there really isn’t much to go on past their meeting earlier this season. We’ll play it safe, make a few small plays and hope that history repeats itself.
Seahawks -7.5 for .5 units. Under 46 for .5 units. Rogers under 271.5 for .5 units. Eddie Lacey over 69.5 for .5 units. Will there be a special teams TD? Yes (+150) for .5 units The Seahawks have been strong late in games, scoring on both offense and defense and I expect this to be a close game where the Seahawks get a late TD to cover. Hopefully on defense.
Patriots -7 favorites against the Colts, the over under 54. This is another rematch of a game played in November when the Patriots were really hitting their stride, handling the Colts fairly easily 42-20. The Patriots have won the last 5 meetings, scoring 59, 43, and 40 points in their last three. It appears Belichick and his staff like what they see when facing the Colts defense but the monkey wrench in this game could be the weather. The forecast is for fairly warm weather and rain. The Patriots have always scored well in bad weather under Belichick, especially in snow, while the Colts play most of their games in the comfort of a dome. All signs point to the Patriots here, which makes this gambler very nervous, as when a play seems too obvious it usually is. In that vein we will be betting the Colts and the under here along with some props.
Colts +7.5 (buying a half point) for .5 units. Under 53 for .5 units. The Patriots over 30.5 for .5 units, in what is a hedge play. Longest TD of the game under 49.5 for .5 units. LaFell under 57.5 yards and under 4.5 catches, each for .5 units.
Given the recent past, the Colts should come out with an extra emphasis on defense, slowing the game on offense to give their defense a chance. A shortened game and a high total has me thinking under, and Braden LeFell should get extra attention downfield limiting his receptions and total yards.
To be honest I actually like the teasers here in any direction as I think neither game will be a blowout, but we’ll go with the Pats -1 and Seahawks -1.5 for 1 unit.
Good luck to all and hopefully we will once again be taking from The Man and add to our coffers.